Neave's late double turned Bristol City's lead into a Wolves win

Wolves came from behind to beat Bristol City 2-1 at Ashton Gate, with Sean Neave scoring both goals and the winner arriving in the 89th minute.

Sean Neave settled it late. His second goal, in the 89th minute, gave Wolves a 2-1 win at Ashton Gate after Bristol City had led since the 34th minute. His first, in the 82nd, had already pulled the visitors level. For a side that spent most of the game with less of the ball, it was an unlikely finish, but it was also one the chances supported.

Scott Twine's goal put Bristol City ahead before the break, and the home side's numbers were those of a team with less of the game. They had 37% of the ball, below the 45.2% they average at home, and five shots. That is a thin return for a side that normally takes more than twice that many in front of its own supporters.

Wolves were the reverse. They had 63% of the ball, well above their away average of 52.8%, and 17 shots, up on the 15.5 they usually manage on the road. Most of those came from inside the penalty area, the place where goals are usually decided, and there Bristol managed only two of their own.

This is where expected goals help. It is a way of valuing each shot by how likely it was to go in, judged on where it was taken from and how it was struck, so a side can be credited with chances even when the scoreboard does not reflect them. Wolves' total was 2.19, against an away average of 1.44 and a league average of 1.39 per side. Bristol's was 0.73, well below the 1.29 they average at home. A side with a high total and few goals has been unlucky, while one with the reverse has been fortunate, and Wolves finished roughly where their chances said they should.

Bristol's goalkeeper, B. Collins, made five saves, and those kept the score close for longer than the shooting figures alone would suggest. Wolves' goalkeeper made one save. The visitors conceded one goal, which is exactly what they usually let in away from home. Bristol conceded two, more than the 1.3 they usually concede at home, so the home side scored about as often as normal and let in more than normal.

Neave was the clearest figure in the game. His rating of 9.4 was the highest on either side, and he scored both of Wolves' goals. Ladislav Krejčí, who made two key passes and set up the winner, was the other Wolves player the numbers point to. Bristol's Twine, rated 7.5, was the only home player whose work matched his goal.

Bristol City remain 15th, with 18 points from 13 games. Wolves sit seventh on 24 from the same number of matches, and the gap between the two sides is now the one the table shows.

Player of the matchS. Neave2 goals9.4

L. Krejčí1 assist7.6

S. Twine1 goal7.5

Y. Mosquera1 chance created7.4