Cercle won on fewer chances while Antwerp had more than usual

Cercle Brugge beat Antwerp 2-1 despite creating far less than their home average, while Antwerp had almost double their usual chances.

Antwerp created chances worth 2.36 expected goals at the Jan Breydel Stadium, nearly double what they usually manage on their travels, and still came home with nothing. Expected goals is a rough measure of chance quality, adding up how likely each shot was to go in. Cercle Brugge's own total was 0.71, roughly half their usual figure at home, and they still won.

Antwerp also had far more of the ball than usual, 59% against the 47.1% they average in away matches. Cercle had 41%, close to their 43.2% at home, so the gap came from Antwerp keeping the ball rather than Cercle giving it up. Possession alone rarely decides a match, and this one shows why.

Antwerp took 15 shots, above their away average of 12.8, while Cercle took 10, below their 11.9 at home. The quality tells a different story. Cercle's shots were closer to goal, with seven from inside the box, while eight of Antwerp's 15 came from distance. Antwerp had only four on target, and Cercle had five.

Tunde Akinsola decided the match. He scored in the 48th and 61st minutes, both set up by Steve Ngoura, and his rating of 8.7 was the highest on either side. Two goals is well above Cercle's home average, and it came from chances that were, on the numbers, less than usual. Antwerp's reply came through Modibo Fofana in the 81st minute, with Bahmed Deuff providing the assist.

The timing matters. Antwerp trailed by two goals from the 61st minute until the 81st, which gave them twenty minutes to find a way back before the reply arrived. Their single goal was below their away average, so the late strike did not change the overall picture of who created the better chances.

Defensively, Antwerp gave up fewer chances than they usually do, conceding chance quality of 0.71 against a normal figure of 1.62 away from home. Cercle, by contrast, conceded chances well above their home norm but only one goal, against an average of 2.3 at home. Their finishing and their goalkeeping did more of the work than the shots did.

Antwerp had won only once in their last six matches, and Cercle had lost five of their last six, so this result breaks a run for the home side. In the table, Cercle sit 18th with three points from nine games, while Antwerp are 11th with ten points from the same nine.

Player of the matchTunde Akinsola2 goals8.7

Geoffrey Kondo5 duels won7.9

Álvaro Cortés8 duels won7.9

Steve Ngoura2 assists7.7