Mirassol's chances doubled their usual; Chapecoense's shrank

A penalty swung this Série A match at the Arena Condá, but the chances tell a sharper story than the scoreline.

Reinaldo missed a penalty for Mirassol in the 20th minute, then scored one just before half-time, and that second chance levelled a match Chapecoense had led since Kauan's finish early on. Kauan's goal came from a move set up by Giovanni Augusto, and for most of the first half it looked like enough. Anderson's own goal in the 57th minute settled it, and the visitors left with the points.

The more revealing figures concern the quality of chances. Expected goals, a measure that gives each shot a value according to where and how it was taken, put Mirassol at 2.16 for the match. That is roughly double their away average of 1.09, so the visitors were getting into positions a good side would expect to score from far more often than usual. Chapecoense managed 0.40 against a home average of 1.01, the lowest figure of the two sides by a distance.

Chapecoense's problem was not simply a lack of effort in front of goal. They took nine shots, below their usual 12.1 at home, and only three of them were on target, which meant very few chances forced the goalkeeper into a save. Kauan's goal arrived from a chance worth far less than a goal on paper, which is why it stood out. Their one goal was the sort of finish that keeps a team in a game, but it did not represent the attacking pattern they normally produce.

Mirassol's finishing matched their chances rather than flattering them. They took 13 shots, close to their usual 12.7, but the quality was clearly better than the number suggests. Their defence also held up, conceding one goal against an away average of 1.4, and the chances they allowed were well above the usual for a home side. The win was built at both ends of the pitch, which is harder to do away from home.

Chapecoense's home record explains why this result hurts them. They have won four of 32 matches at the Arena Condá this season and lost 19, leaving them 20th with 21 points. Across their last six matches overall, they have managed one win and one draw, and the rest have been defeats.

Mirassol's away form is steadier. They have nine wins, ten draws and 14 defeats from 33 matches, which leaves them 16th with 37 points. This win adds to a total that is considerably more useful at this stage of the season than the one Chapecoense are carrying, and Kauan, rated 7.9, was the only Chapecoense player to find the net.

Chapecoense remain 20th, and their only scorer on the night was Kauan.

Player of the matchKauan1 goal7.9

Alesson2 chances created7.6

Camilo13 duels won7.5

Reinaldo1 goal7.3