Charleroi's finishing ran well ahead of their chances

Charleroi beat RAAL La Louvière with a late red card, but the story is how far their goals outran their chances.

Charleroi beat RAAL La Louvière, and the finishing did most of the work. Cheick Keita was sent off at 89 minutes for a second yellow card, leaving the hosts with ten men, but the game was already settled by then. Expected goals, or xG, rates each shot by how often a chance like it goes in, on a scale from zero to one. Charleroi's chances added up to 2.14, well above their usual 1.59 at home, and their goals went further still.

Charleroi were in front inside six minutes, when Jakob Napoleon Romsaas scored. Scheidler converted a penalty at 33, and by 49 minutes it was 4-0 after an own goal in the 47th and a strike from Freddy Mbemba. That was a lot of scoring in a short spell, and it put the match out of RAAL's reach before the hour.

RAAL then pulled two back within a minute, through Léandro Rousseau at 75 and Mustapha Isah at 76. Antoine Colassin restored the three-goal gap at 84, and that goal was the last of the afternoon before Keita's dismissal. The hosts' 1.8 goals a game was beaten comfortably, but the visitors' goals were in line with their own usual output of 1.2.

RAAL had 42% of the ball, which is above their usual 37.7%, yet they managed only 10 shots against a usual 11.6. Charleroi held 58% of the ball, close to their usual 57.6%, so their share was ordinary for them. Their 14 shots were fewer than their usual 16.1, which makes the goal tally more striking. Charleroi needed fewer chances than they usually do to win, and they still scored as much as the game asked.

Mbemba was the player of the afternoon. He was rated 9.9, scored once, made two assists and completed five key passes, the kind that create a shooting opportunity. Romsaas and Colassin each scored, and Rousseau and Isah did the same for RAAL, though the visitors' keeper made three saves, against one from the hosts' goalkeeper. Those three saves were the difference between a heavier defeat and the one RAAL took.

RAAL conceded five goals, where they usually concede two, and their defence allowed chances worth 0.91 expected goals, close to the 0.86 Charleroi usually give up at home. Charleroi's goal count was therefore less a matter of defensive collapse than of their finishing. Charleroi now sit fourth with 21 points from nine matches, with seven wins, while RAAL are 16th with seven points and two wins.

Player of the matchFreddy Mbemba1 goal · 2 assists9.9

Jakob Napoleon Romsaas1 goal7.6

Cheick Keita1 chance created7.3

Patrick Pflücke1 assist7.3