Chicago created more than double their usual chances and lost

Columbus Crew won 4-3 at Chicago Fire with a 90th-minute goal from Brais Méndez, despite creating fewer chances than usual.

Brais Méndez scored in the 90th minute to give Columbus Crew a 4-3 win at Chicago Fire, after the game had already turned on two penalties. Robert Lewandowski converted both for Chicago, in the 8th and 22nd minutes, and Gonzalo Tapia scored twice for Columbus. Neither side had a player sent off, so the finish owed nothing to a numerical advantage.

Expected goals, or xG, is a way of measuring the quality of chances: each shot is valued by how often a shot like it would usually go in, so a side that gets into clear positions builds a higher total. Chicago's figure was 3.07, more than double their usual 1.3 at home this season, and comfortably above the league figure of 1.45 for a side in a typical match. They had 15 shots, which is close to their normal number, so the difference lay in the quality of their openings.

Chicago had 53% of the ball, almost exactly their home average, so the surprise is not that they had more possession. Their chances were worth more than the goals they took from them, and the gap between what they created and what they scored is the reason the result looks so strange. Their chances were the best of the two sides on the day, and they still went behind.

Columbus told a different story. They had 47% of the ball, below their usual share of 52.9% away from home, and they took 11 shots against an average of 14.3. Their expected goals total was also below what they normally create on the road. Yet they still found the net more often than their away average suggests, so they turned fewer openings into a higher return.

Tapia was the player the result rests on. He scored twice, with Taha Habroune and Malte Amundsen providing the assists, and his performance earned a rating of 9. Lewandowski's two spot kicks gave him a rating of 7.4, a fair reflection of a strong afternoon in front of goal that was not enough on its own.

At the back, Chicago conceded four against a home average of 1.8, and Columbus conceded three against an away average of 1.1, so both defences leaked more than usual. The match produced seven goals in total, more than twice the league average of 3.3 per match. Chicago received four yellow cards to Columbus's two, and there were no dismissals.

Columbus have now won five of their last six matches, while Chicago's last six include two defeats.

Player of the matchG. Tapia2 goals8.9

R. Lewandowski2 goals7.4

T. Habroune1 assist7.3

A. Zaroury1 goal7.0