Brugge fired more shots than usual but took worse chances

Club Brugge KV and Anderlecht drew 1-1 at the Jan Breydel Stadium, with the home side taking more shots than usual but fewer good ones.

Club Brugge KV took 24 shots in their 1-1 draw with Anderlecht, well above the 15.4 they average at home. Shots alone can flatter a side, though, because a long, hopeful effort counts the same as a open goal in the tally. To see how good those shots really were, we need a measure that weighs each chance by its quality.

That measure is expected goals, or xG, a rough estimate of how likely each chance was to go in. Club Brugge KV finished with 1.52, against a usual 2.22 at home, which suggests many of their efforts came from positions that were hard to score from. Only eight shots were on target, and the one that counted came in the 41st minute, when Hans Vanaken finished a move that Cheveyo Tsawa started.

Vanaken was rated 7.5 for that goal and for a busy afternoon, with five shots and four of them on target. For the home side, the scoring was also thinner than usual: one goal, where their home average is 2.6. The gap between the number of shots and the quality of those shots is the real story of the first half of their game.

Anderlecht had only a third of the ball, 33%, where their away average is 61.1%. They managed seven shots, with one on target, and that single effort was enough to produce their equaliser. Their goalkeeper, Colin Coosemans, made seven saves and was rated 8.3, and he also supplied the pass for the goal. Their xG was 0.74, against a usual 1.51, so their attacking was quieter than their own norm too.

Mihajlo Cvetković scored for Anderlecht in the 58th minute, 17 minutes after Vanaken had given the home side the lead. Anderlecht made two substitutions in that same minute, and the visitors then held on to the point. Cvetković was rated 8.2, a reasonable reward for a player who made the most of the one shot that really counted.

Anderlecht arrive with four wins and two defeats from their last six away games, a record that is in keeping with the season so far. They conceded one goal here, which is close to their usual 1.1, so the defensive side of their afternoon was ordinary. Nothing in the figures suggests a surprise on that front.

Shots that come from distance are still shots, which is why the 24 looks impressive at first glance. Once quality is weighed, the home side created less than they usually do, and the visitors created far less than they usually do. Club Brugge KV sit top of the table with 27 points from ten matches, nine wins and one defeat, while Anderlecht are fifth on 19.

Player of the matchCarlos Forbs2 chances created9.3

Félix Lemaréchal7 chances created9.2

Colin Coosemans1 assist8.3

Brandon Mechele7 duels won8.2