Cruzeiro won with less of the ball and more chances than usual

Cruzeiro beat Bahia 3-2 at home after Kaio Jorge's penalty miss, winning the chance count while Bahia kept more of the ball.

Kaio Jorge missed a penalty in the 62nd minute, and by the final whistle the miss had barely mattered, because he finished the night with two goals of his own. Bahia had led since the 32nd minute, when Cristian Olivera scored from a pass by Rodrigo, and Kaio Jorge's first goal came just before half time to level the match. Bruno Rodrigues put Cruzeiro ahead in the 69th minute, and Kaio Jorge added the third in the 86th. Alejo Véliz pulled one back for Bahia in the 90th, but by then the result was largely settled.

Possession, the share of time each side spends with the ball, is where the picture starts, and it points the other way from the result. Cruzeiro had 45% of it, well short of the 53.6% they usually have at home. Bahia had 55%, a little above the 50.9% they average away from home. Cruzeiro, in other words, had less of the ball than they normally do in front of their own crowd.

The chances tell a different story. Cruzeiro took 21 shots, against a home average of 15, and their expected goals (xG, a figure that gives each effort a value based on how likely it was to go in) came to 3.25, against a home average of 1.56. Bahia took 12 shots, close to their away average of 13.6, but their xG of 0.64 sat far below the 1.85 they usually produce on the road. Fewer shots, and much weaker ones.

The goals followed the same direction. Five were scored in the match, against a league average of 2.7 per game, so this was a busier evening than most. Cruzeiro's three beat their home average of 2, and Bahia's two beat their away average of 1.6. Cruzeiro also conceded more than they usually do at home, where the average is 1.3, which is worth remembering when the chance figures are read alongside the scoreline.

The quality of Cruzeiro's chances is the most telling part of the numbers. Cruzeiro had 14 shots from inside the penalty area, while Bahia managed 8, and that gap is where the xG figures come from. On the road Bahia usually concede 1.16 expected goals, and Cruzeiro's chances in this match were worth far more than that. Bahia still scored twice, so the match was not one-way, but the ball and the chances did not travel together.

Kaio Jorge was the player who turned those chances into points. He had five shots, three of them on target, and was rated 9 for his evening, the best mark of anyone on either side. The penalty he missed stands as the one moment that could have changed the story, and it did not, because the striker kept going and was involved again in the goal that put Cruzeiro three up.

Cruzeiro sit third in the table and Bahia sixth. Keny Arroyo provided the assist for two of Cruzeiro's three goals, the equaliser and the goal that put them ahead.

Player of the matchKaio Jorge2 goals9.0

Gabriel Rojas2 chances created7.9

Keny Arroyo2 assists7.7

Bruno Rodrigues1 goal7.5