Derby struck three times after the break to beat Bolton

Derby came back from a goal down at half-time with less of the ball and fewer shots than usual, and beat Bolton 3-1 at Pride Park.

Derby had 29% of the ball at Pride Park and still beat Bolton 3-1, and the reason sits in the first four minutes after half-time. Ruben Rodrigues had given the visitors a 42nd-minute lead, set up by Gaizka Larrazabal, and Bolton went in at the break ahead. Then Ryan Nyambe scored at 46, with Mohammed Fuseini providing the pass, and Jack Robinson made it two at 49, with Carlton Morris setting him up.

Derby usually have around half the ball at home, averaging 50.3%, so 29% is a long way below their normal share. Their shooting fell away too, but the chances they did create were better than usual. Expected goals, or xG, adds up the quality of each chance, so a close-range effort counts for far more than a shot from distance. Derby's chances came to 1.52, well above their home average of 0.97, which means they were working good openings from fewer attempts.

Bolton had the opposite picture for most of the match. They held 71% of the ball, against an away average of 50.2%, and took 17 shots where they usually take 12.6. Their chances were better than usual too, with an xG of 1.57 against a normal 1.19, and six of their efforts were on target. The league average is 13.3 shots per side, so Bolton's total was well above the typical figure, while Derby's sat below it.

The goals are what changed the balance. Bolton conceded three, against an away average of 1.8 goals let in, while Derby conceded only one, against a home average of 2.3. Four goals in total is a little more than the league average of 3 per game, but the more telling part is which side scored them. Derby's finishing was sharper than the chances alone suggested, and Bolton's was not sharp enough to match theirs.

Rhian Brewster made it three in the 90th minute, without an assist, and that goal settled the match. It came after Derby had already done the hard work of turning the game around in the second half. Bolton's own goal had come early in the first half, and after it they had little else to show for their pressure on the ball. The contrast is clear from the goals alone.

The table gives the match its wider context. Derby are 23rd with 7 points from 14 games, while Bolton are 17th with 17 points from the same number of matches. Derby have lost four and drawn two of their last six, and Bolton's run has been more mixed, with two wins among their last six results. This was a win Derby needed far more than Bolton's control of the ball suggested they would get.

Ruben Rodrigues was the best-rated player on the pitch, and his goal was Bolton's only reward for a match in which they had the ball and most of the chances. Derby leave with the three points, after a half-time deficit they recovered in the space of a few minutes.

Player of the matchRuben Rodrigues1 goal8.2

C. Morris1 assist7.7

R. Brewster1 goal7.5

J. Robinson1 goal7.4