Real Betis's chances were better, and two late goals settled it

Real Betis won 2-0 at Elche, and the chances they made were worth far more than their share of the ball.

Rodrigo Riquelme broke the deadlock on 81 minutes and Marc Bartra doubled it on 89, so a match that was goalless for most of its length was settled late. Real Betis took the points at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, but the scoreline hides how the game was actually decided. The clearest difference was not the ball or the total number of attempts, but the quality of those attempts.

Possession was almost level, with Real Betis on 52% and Elche on 48%. Neither figure is unusual. Elche usually keep 51.8% of the ball at home, and Real Betis usually have 52.8% when they travel. Real Betis took 17 shots against an away average of 16.5, so the volume was ordinary too.

The change came in the quality of those shots. Expected goals, or xG, scores each attempt by how likely it was to go in, so a shot from close range counts for far more than a speculative effort from distance. Real Betis reached 1.95 on that measure, well above their usual away figure of 1.28, and they had 12 efforts inside the penalty area against Elche's seven.

Where the shots were taken tells a similar story. Elche took six of their 13 attempts from outside the box, while Real Betis took only five of their 17 from that distance. Elche's attempts were therefore more often speculative, and their xG of 1.25 was still above their home average of 1.08, which means the chances they did create were better than usual for them.

Elche were not idle in front of goal. Their 13 shots were above their home average of 11.5, but only one of them was on target. Real Betis, by contrast, forced nine saves from the home side's goalkeeper, M. Dituro, who made seven of them and kept the scoreline level until the 81st minute.

Dani Ceballos supplied the pass for Bartra's goal and made three key passes in all, a return that stood out in the match. At the other end, Álvaro Vallés had only one save to make, which says a good deal about how rarely Elche tested him. Real Betis's chances were concentrated in the places where a goal was most likely, and they took them when the game opened up.

For the division as a whole, matches average 2.9 goals, so two goals makes this a low-scoring game by that standard. Elche have won two of their home matches this season, while Real Betis have won seven of their away matches and rank fourth in the away table. The side with the better chances on the night also brings one of the stronger away records into the next fixture.

Player of the matchM. Dituro7 saves7.9

Marc Bartra1 goal7.7

Dani Ceballos1 assist7.7

Rodrigo Riquelme1 goal7.4