Benfica won at Estrela on about a quarter of their usual chances

Estrela 2-3 Benfica: the visitors won with far fewer chances than they usually create, helped by an own goal and a late strike.

Benfica had 0.62 expected goals at the Estadio José Gomes. Expected goals is a measure of chance quality, adding up how likely each shot was to go in. Across their ten away matches they normally average 2.38, so the visitors created about a quarter of their usual threat, and still came away with a 3-2 win.

Estrela's own chances were close to normal. Their 1.35 expected goals sat almost exactly on their home average of 1.34, although they took only seven shots against a usual 12.9, and four of those came from inside the box. Benfica's shot count was also below their away norm, with 14 shots against 18, seven of them inside the area and four on target.

Possession tells a simpler story. Benfica held 62% of the ball, which is in line with their away average of 63.7%, so nothing unusual there. Estrela had 38%, well under the 52.1% they usually keep at home, which means the home side saw less of the ball than they normally do in front of their own supporters.

The goals came in a sequence worth following. Gianluca Prestianni opened the scoring at 26 from a pass by Claudio Echeverri, and Lovro Zvonarek levelled at 48 after a pass from Rafa Soares. An own goal by Bernardo Schappo at 68 put Benfica back in front, Leandro Antonetti equalised at 76, and Vangelis Pavlidis settled it at 90 from Andreas Schjelderup. Pavlidis earned a rating of 8.2 from one goal and one of his two shots on target.

The goal tallies also run against the usual pattern. Estrela scored two, above their home average of 1.5, but conceded three, well above the 1.9 they usually let in. Benfica scored three, slightly above their away average of 2.7, and conceded two, which is far more than the 0.8 they normally concede on the road. Five goals in all is more than the league average of 2.6 per side.

What makes the result stand out is what Estrela allowed. Their usual conceded chance quality is 1.21 expected goals, and Benfica produced far less than that. Estrela defended the chances better than normal, yet three goals went past them, including the own goal and the 90th-minute winner. Chances and goals did not match on the day, and that gap is the main talking point.

Benfica's away form is the context here. They have won eight of their ten away matches, and their last six results are all wins. Estrela have ten points from ten matches at home, having won twice and lost four of their last six in the sequence they have just played through, with a draw and a win to finish.

Player of the matchV. Pavlidis1 goal8.2

G. Prestianni1 goal8.0

L. Antonetti1 goal7.2

A. Schjelderup1 assist7.1