An early goal and thin chances sink Eyüpspor

Kocaelispor won at Eyüpspor with a goal inside the first five minutes, and the chances explain why the home side struggled to reply.

D. Agyei put Kocaelispor ahead in the fifth minute, and that early goal set the terms for the rest of the match. Eyüpspor came into it on a run of six straight defeats, and their league position of 18th reflects how little they have been winning. The result is clear enough, but the way the chances were created tells us more about what each side actually did with the ball.

Eyüpspor had 49% of possession, almost exactly their usual 49.6%, so keeping the ball was not where they fell short. Kocaelispor had 51%, a little above their normal 48.4%. Neither side was unusual in how much of the ball it held, which makes the chances the place to look.

Eyüpspor managed only five shots, well below their usual 9.6 at home, and their chances added up to an expected goals figure of 0.26. Expected goals, or xG, scores each shot by how likely it was to go in, and the home side's average is 0.55. Only three of those attempts were on target, so very little of their attacking threatened the visitors' goal.

Kocaelispor's attacking was closer to normal. They had 12 shots, in line with their usual 12.1 away from home, and chances worth 1.00 xG against an average of 0.96. The second goal came from Berkan Kutlu on 28 minutes, set up by Rigoberto Rivas, and Kutlu's rating of 8.3 was the best in either lineup. Rivas also won eight duels and made several defensive interventions, the sort of work that rarely shows on a scoresheet.

What stands out most is how little Eyüpspor allowed compared with their own record. Kocaelispor's chances were worth 1.00 xG, while the home side usually concedes 2.12 xG in its matches. Goalkeeper Horațiu Moldovan kept out the chances that did arrive, and the visitors still scored twice, against a usual figure of 2.8 goals conceded at home. The problem for Eyüpspor was not the volume of chances they gave away, but how few of their own they made use of.

Across the league, a side averages 12.7 shots and 1.27 xG per match, and the average game produces 3.1 goals. This one had two, which makes it quieter than most matches in the division. Kocaelispor's 12 shots sit close to that league norm, while Eyüpspor's five and 0.26 xG sit well below it, so the gap between the sides was real but not extreme.

Kocaelispor are eighth with 16 points from 10 matches, while Eyüpspor, on 3 points, remain 18th. The home side's run of six straight defeats is their most recent record, and it now sits alongside a season in which they have scored only three goals at home.

Player of the matchBerkan Kutlu1 goal8.3

Emir Ortakaya6 duels won7.7

Rigoberto Rivas1 assist7.6

Horațiu Moldovan5 saves7.3