Celtic had the ball and the shots, but no goals at Falkirk

Falkirk beat Celtic 2-0 after Ethan Ross's third-minute goal, winning with fewer chances than their usual and finishing the ones they had.

Ethan Ross scored in the third minute, and that single moment shaped the rest of the match. Falkirk were ahead before Celtic had properly settled, and Scott Tanser made it 2-0 in the 38th minute, with an assist from Owen Eames. From there the question was whether Celtic could find a way back, and they never did.

Celtic had 69% of the ball, well above their usual 59.6%, and they took 24 shots against a season average of 20. Expected goals, a rough measure of how likely each chance was to go in based on where and how it was struck, put their chances at 2.79. That is close to the 2.93 they usually create, so they had more attempts than normal but roughly the quality they normally produce.

Falkirk were the mirror image. They had 31% of the ball against their usual 47.7%, and six shots against an average of 11.6. Their chances were worth 1.06 in expected goals, a little under their usual 1.15, yet they scored twice. Their season average is 1.2 goals a match, so two was a better return than their chances usually bring.

Celtic's shot count was not the problem, as they had 19 efforts from inside the box and 13 corners. Their nine shots on target were all kept out by the Falkirk goalkeeper, S. Bain, who made nine saves. His performance earned him the highest rating on the pitch, and it is hard to see how Celtic could have done more with the chances they actually had.

Jacob Murrell had a Falkirk goal ruled out after a VAR check in the 50th minute, which meant the margin stayed at two. Celtic's most active players were H. Hassan, who made four key passes and completed six dribbles, and C. Carter-Vickers, who won eleven duels. Those were the actions that kept Celtic in the game, but they did not turn into goals.

Falkirk's own season has been more uneven. They have won four and lost four of their 11 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 12 in that time, which leaves them in the lower half of the table. Winning here against a side at the top gave them a result that their earlier numbers did not predict.

Celtic remain top of the table on 28 points from 11 matches, with nine wins, while Falkirk sit sixth on 15.

Player of the matchS. Bain9 saves9.4

E. Ross1 goal7.8

S. Tanser1 goal7.3

H. Hassan4 chances created7.2