Flamengo made better chances than usual and beat Gremio 3-1

Flamengo beat Gremio 3-1 at the Maracanã, with the quality of their chances well above their own average even though they had less of the ball.

Pedro Guilherme scored twice in the first half, and his second came right on half-time, which is the part of this match that changes how the rest reads. Samuel Lino had opened the scoring on 20 minutes, and Pedro's goals on 28 and 45 gave Flamengo a comfortable lead at the interval. Gremio had no answer until Francis Amuzu pulled one back on 69 minutes, by which time the margin had already been settled.

Flamengo had 55% of the ball, which is below their usual share of the possession, and they took 16 shots, also a little under their average. The chances themselves were better than normal, though. Expected goals (xG, a figure that gives each shot a score for how likely it was to go in) reached 2.37 for Flamengo, against their own average of 1.9 and a league average of 1.37 per side. Eight of those shots were on target, and ten came from inside the box.

Gremio had 45% of the ball, close to the 46.9% they usually keep when playing away, so the possession was ordinary for them. Their attack was not. They managed only 7 shots, far below both their away average and the league norm, and their chances carried a total xG of 0.31, well under what they usually create on the road. Gabriel Grando had to make six saves, which tells you how often the Flamengo forwards still found the target, even when the chances were not many.

Flamengo's defence was also better than its own habits. Gremio's chances added up to 0.31 xG, against the 0.84 that Flamengo usually concede at home, so the home side let in fewer dangerous chances than normal. Gremio did score, but the goal came from a chance that was not especially likely, and it arrived late in the match. Flamengo conceded one goal, slightly above their home average of 0.7, which is a fair description of the result rather than a warning sign.

Pedro Guilherme was the clear player of the match. He had six shots, three of them on target, and scored both of Flamengo's first-half goals, earning a rating of 8.9, the highest on either side. Francis Amuzu was Gremio's most effective attacker, scoring their only goal and rating 7.7, with four successful dribbles. Neither side's midfield created many clear chances, so the attacking moments came mostly from the two wingers and the strikers.

Flamengo are now top of the Série A table, with 73 points from 33 matches. They have won 22 of their 33 matches at home, scoring 68 goals and conceding 28. Gremio sit 17th on 37 points, and their away record of nine wins, ten draws and 14 defeats shows a side that has found the road hard all season, with 37 goals scored and 44 conceded in those games.

Player of the matchPedro Guilherme2 goals8.9

Jorginho4 duels won7.7

Francis Amuzu1 goal7.7

Léo Pereira1 shot on target7.3