Kasımpaşa's early goal and penalty sank Gaziantep at home

Kasımpaşa won 2-0 at Gaziantep with a third-minute goal and a penalty, on fewer shots than usual but with far better chances.

Haris Hajradinović had Kasımpaşa ahead inside three minutes, and A. Benedyczak doubled the lead from the penalty spot on 21. Gaziantep never recovered, and the 2-0 defeat at Gaziantep Stadyumu came from a fast start and a spot kick. Those two moments matter more than anything else in the match, so the rest of the numbers should be read against them.

Gaziantep had the ball far more than Kasımpaşa, 61% to 39%. Gaziantep usually hold around 52% of possession at home, so that was an unusually large share, while Kasımpaşa's 39% came in below the 43.1% they average on their travels. Possession only tells us who was keeping the ball, though, not who was making the most of it.

The more useful measure is expected goals, a rough score from 0 to 1 for how good each shot was, judged by where it was taken from. Kasımpaşa's shots added up to 1.81, far above the 0.98 they usually manage away. Gaziantep's 0.76 fell short of the 1.02 they normally reach at home. Gaziantep took 14 shots, close to their usual 13.4, while Kasımpaşa took 10, fewer than the 11.6 they average, but Kasımpaşa's were the better chances.

Both sides put four shots on target, so accuracy was not the difference. Hajradinović was the clearest example: he scored, both of his shots were on target, and he was rated 8.7, the highest mark in the match. Kasımpaşa's keeper was called on four times and Gaziantep's keeper twice, which shows that the home side's problem was getting into the box with real openings rather than the finishing alone.

Gaziantep conceded two goals, close to their home average of 1.9, so the scoreline was ordinary for them. The chances they allowed were not. Kasımpaşa's chances were well above the 1.19 that Gaziantep usually concede at home, and Gaziantep scored none, against a home average of one.

Two goals is below the 3.1 that an average match in this league produces, so this was a quiet game for scoring by the standards of the division. It was also a match in which Kasımpaşa's early start did most of the work, because the goals came before the home side had settled.

Kasımpaşa have won four, drawn five and lost one of their ten away matches, which is fifth on that measure. Gaziantep, 16th on home form, have won two, drawn two and lost six of their ten at home. Gaziantep have lost five of their last six matches, and Kasımpaşa have won three of their last six.

Player of the matchHaris Hajradinović1 goal8.7

Juninho Bacuna3 chances created7.3

Cláudio Winck7 duels won7.3

Abakar Sylla1 chance created7.2