Gençlerbirliği S.K. won with less of the ball and far better chances

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Alanyaspor at Eryaman after sitting back on possession, because the quality of their chances was well above anything the visitors created.

Oğulcan Ülgün put Gençlerbirliği S.K. ahead inside the first minute, with Franco Tongya supplying the pass, and the afternoon was effectively decided from there. Alanyaspor had the larger share of the ball, but possession was not the figure that mattered. The question that settled the match was who was getting the better shots.

Alanyaspor had 60% of the ball, well above the 42.9% they average in away games. Gençlerbirliği S.K. had 40%, slightly under their usual 43.7% at home. Alanyaspor also completed more passes, and more of them found a teammate, yet more passing did not turn into more danger.

Football analysts use a measure called expected goals, or xG, which scores each shot by how often shots from that spot and in that way tend to go in. A value of 1 means a chance a striker would be expected to score roughly every time. Gençlerbirliği S.K. produced 1.76 of them, against their own home average of 0.96. Alanyaspor managed 0.50, below their away average of 0.87.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. scored five, which means they finished well above what their chances suggested. Tiago Gouveia took two of those goals and hit the target four times, and Tongya added a goal and two assists. Ülgün and Pedro Mendes also found the net, so the scoring was spread across the attack rather than resting on one player.

The defensive figure tells the other half of the story. Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded 0.50 expected goals, far below their usual home figure of 1.88, so the visitors had few clear openings to work with. Alanyaspor did take nine shots, but only three were on target, and the home goalkeeper, İrfan Can Eğribayat, made three saves while the visiting keeper was given little to do.

Across the league, a side typically takes 12.8 shots and creates 1.28 expected goals in a match. Gençlerbirliği S.K. were close to the shot count, but their chance quality was far above that norm. Alanyaspor's nine shots were below the league figure, and their xG was well short of it, which explains why 60% possession and 429 passes produced no goals at all.

In the table, Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 16th on 8 points from nine games, and their home record is two wins from nine. Alanyaspor sit 12th with 12 points, having won three, drawn three and lost three of their nine away matches.

Player of the matchTiago Gouveia2 goals9.3

Franco Tongya1 goal · 2 assists9.0

İrfan Can Eğribayat1 assist8.9

Oğulcan Ülgün1 goal7.9