Ten-man Borussia Mönchengladbach still had the chances in defeat

Hamburger SV beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at the Volksparkstadion, with the visitors creating well above their usual chances after Ko Itakura's red card.

Borussia Mönchengladbach were level at 1-1 when Ko Itakura was sent off in the 49th minute, five minutes after Robin Hack had equalised. From then on the visitors played a man short, and Hamburger SV made the most of it by scoring in the 59th and 70th minutes to win 3-1. The red card is the first thing to understand about this game, because the numbers that follow only make sense in its light.

Expected goals, or xG, values each shot by how often shots of that kind become goals, so a total near one is roughly one goal's worth of chances. Hamburger SV finished on 2.36, more than double their usual home figure of 1.04. Borussia Mönchengladbach reached 2.47 despite the sending off, close to double their average on the road, and the league average for a side in one match is 1.58. Both teams created far more than normal, which is why this was not a game settled by a single moment.

Possession tells a different story. Hamburger SV had the ball for 62% of the match, well above the 41.8% they usually keep at home, while Borussia Mönchengladbach dropped to 38%, below their 45.5% on the road. The home side turned that ball into 18 shots, against a usual 10.8, and the visitors still managed 19 after going down to ten men, where their travelling average is 14.3.

Muheim opened the scoring in the 11th minute, with Albert Sambi Lokonga providing the assist, and Robin Hack's equaliser at 44 came from a pass by Joe Scally. Shafiq Nandja's goal at 59 was set up by Albert Grönbaek, who then scored himself at 70. Grönbaek was the outstanding figure for Hamburger SV, and his rating of 9 reflects a player who was involved in two of the three home goals. Hamburger SV put three of their nine shots on target into the net, while Borussia Mönchengladbach managed one from six.

Daniel Heuer Fernandes made four saves for Hamburger SV, and on the other side D. Batz was asked to make six, which kept the visitors in the game for longer than the scoreline suggests. Hamburger SV usually concede 2.4 goals a match at home, and they let in one here. Borussia Mönchengladbach usually concede 2.8 on the road and conceded three, close to that level for a side playing away from home.

Hamburger SV were fifteenth before kick-off and have won three of their last six games. Borussia Mönchengladbach, who were eighteenth, had lost four of their five previous away matches before this one.

Player of the matchA. Grønbæk1 goal · 1 assist9.0

M. Muheim1 goal7.9

R. Hack1 goal7.5

A. Sambi Lokonga1 assist7.2