Falkirk's chances ran far above their usual level at Tynecastle
Falkirk were well clear at half-time, and Heart Of Midlothian's own chances were about what they usually are at home.
Falkirk scored in the opening minutes, and by the 47th minute they had put the match out of reach. Finley Frank Barbrook got the first goal early, Jacob Murrell scored twice, once at 33 and again just after the interval, and Liam Henderson added another on the stroke of half-time. Nobody was sent off, so the visitors' start owed nothing to numbers. Heart Of Midlothian had the rest of the afternoon to recover from a deep hole.
Expected goals, usually shortened to xG, is a way of judging the quality of each chance by where it was taken and how it was struck. Falkirk finished with 2.56, which is well above the 1.14 they usually create on their travels. In plain terms, they got into positions a typical finisher would score from far more often than they normally do away from home. Their shot count was only a little above their usual figure, so it was the quality of those chances that changed.
Ball possession
Heart Of Midlothian had 58% of the ball, more than their usual share of 52.3% at home, and took 16 shots, which is almost exactly what they normally manage. Their xG of 1.93 was also close to their usual 1.85, so they were not short of openings. The difference lay at the other end, where Falkirk's chances were better than the 1.74 Heart Of Midlothian usually concede at home. Possession and shots were ordinary; what the visitors did with their chances was not.
Murrell took his chances well, scoring twice from three shots on target and earning a match rating of 8.4, the highest in the individual figures for either side. Barbrook was rated 7.8 and won more individual contests than any other Falkirk player, eleven of them. Heart Of Midlothian's Severin Sabri Guendouz pulled one back at 50 after Josh Mcpake set him up, and he too was rated 7.3. Those were the bright spots for the home side, and they were not enough.
Heart Of Midlothian scored twice, close to the 2.2 goals they usually manage at home, so the attack was working as normal. Claudio Rafael Soares Braga had a goal ruled out by VAR, the video review of decisions, at 20 minutes, and later converted a penalty at 75. The problem was the other end: five conceded against a usual 1.5 at home. Falkirk were also the side booked most often, six yellow cards to one, and they committed 19 fouls to Heart Of Midlothian's 11, so the referee had far more to say about the visitors.
Heart Of Midlothian remain third in the table with 20 points from 11 matches, and Falkirk are fourth on 18 from 12.
J. Murrell
Finley Frank Barbrook
L. Henderson
S. Guendouz
2 goals
1 goal