Calabria's 90th-minute penalty sank Iraklis after a VAR check

Panathinaikos won 2-1 at Iraklis 1908 with a late spot kick, though Iraklis created more chances than Panathinaikos usually allow on their travels.

Davide Calabria's penalty in the 90th minute gave Panathinaikos a 2-1 win at Iraklis 1908, and the award stood after a VAR check. Iraklis had led since the 17th minute, when Pedro Marques scored from a pass by Praxitelis Vouros, and they kept that lead until Cyriel Dessers equalised just after the hour. The winner decided the result, but the figures underneath point to a more interesting story about the hosts.

Panathinaikos had 66% of the ball, which is close to what they usually have on the road, since they average 63% in away games this season. The shape of the match was therefore familiar for the visitors. Iraklis moved further from their normal pattern. They had 34% of the ball, well below the 43.6% they average at home, yet still managed nine shots, almost exactly their usual number.

Panathinaikos created fewer chances than they usually do away from home. Their expected goals figure, which measures how good the chances were rather than how many went in, came to 1.82, below the 2.19 they average on the road. They still took 14 shots, and scoring two goals was in line with what they normally produce away.

The chances were where Iraklis stood out. Their expected goals reached 1.13, above the 0.84 they usually manage at home. Panathinaikos concede an average of 0.72 expected goals per away game, so Iraklis made more of a chance against this side than Panathinaikos usually allow when they travel. That is the kind of gap a reader should notice, even though the scoreboard tells a different story.

Iraklis scored one goal, which is a little under their home average of 1.3, but they conceded two, which is more than the one they usually let in at home. Panathinaikos, by contrast, had the more potent finishing on the day. Dessers was the central figure in that, scoring the equaliser from a pass by Giorgos Kyriakopoulos and taking five shots, two of them on target.

Xande Silva came on for Iraklis in the 68th minute and had three shots before the end, a busy spell from a player who had little time to make an impression. Pedro Marques also scored for the hosts, with his goal coming from a sharp move that put Iraklis in front early. Neither could hold on to the lead, and Calabria's penalty was the moment that counted most.

Panathinaikos have now won their last six matches, and they have won eight of their nine away games this season, scoring 20 goals and conceding four. Iraklis have ten points from nine games. The win at Kaftanzoglio Stadio moved Panathinaikos on, while the hosts left with plenty to think about.

Player of the matchC. Dessers1 goal8.0

Pedro Marques1 goal7.5

P. Vouros1 assist7.1

L. García2 chances created7.0