A missed penalty late on, and Mardin 1969 hold on at İstanbulspor

Mardin 1969 won 2-1 at İstanbulspor after trailing early, with more of the ball and far better chances than they usually have.

Zdravko Dimitrov's penalty in the 77th minute did not go in, and that kept Mardin 1969 ahead at Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadium. A side that falls behind inside seven minutes and still wins has had a different afternoon from one that simply stayed in front, and the rest of the numbers read differently because of it.

Elvin Mendy put İstanbulspor ahead in the 7th minute, set up by Ömer Faruk Duymaz. Mardin levelled before the break through Mallik Wilks, assisted by Tonio Teklić in the 42nd minute, then took the lead in the 59th through Olarenwaju Kayode. Three goals is close to the 2.9 a match the league averages, so the scoring itself was ordinary. The more interesting question is who made the better chances.

İstanbulspor had 43% of the ball, against a home average of 43.4%, so their share was exactly what we would expect from them. Mardin had 57%, against an away average of 40.6%. That gap is the clearest departure from normal in the whole match, and it came from the visitors.

Mardin took 14 shots, ten of them from inside the box, and their chances, measured by expected goals (xG, a score from 0 to 1 for how likely each shot was to find the net), came to 2.43. That is well above their away average of 0.94 and above the league's typical side, which creates around 1.33. İstanbulspor managed only six shots, three from inside the box, yet their xG of 1.56 was higher than their home average of 1.17. They shot less than usual, but the shots they took were better than normal.

İstanbulspor conceded two goals, below their home average of 2.6, which is a fact worth holding onto. The chances Mardin created, though, were worth more than the 1.74 xG that İstanbulspor usually allow at home. Their goalkeeper made five saves, while Mardin's made one, and that split tells the same story as the xG: the home side kept the scoreline closer than the chances suggested it should be.

Kayode's winner in the 59th minute came with no assist recorded, and Wilks's goal had Teklić's involvement behind it. Mendy's goal was his own, and he went into the book in the 76th minute. İstanbulspor picked up five yellow cards over the match, while Mardin 1969 had none, and neither side was sent off.

İstanbulspor sit 19th with five points from 12 matches, and they have lost nine of their home games this season. Mardin 1969 are fifth with 21 points from 12, so this win fits the pattern of a side that has been picking up points away from home. Nine home defeats is the figure that stands out most from İstanbulspor's season so far.

Player of the matchO. Kayode1 goal7.7

T. Teklić1 assist7.7

M. Wilks1 goal7.5

E. Mendy1 goal7.3