Frederiksen's hat-trick sinks Rijeka after an early red card

Istra 1961 beat HNK Rijeka 3-1 in the HNL, with Emil Frederiksen scoring a hat-trick after Rijeka had been reduced to ten.

Jakov Puljić was sent off in the 27th minute, and HNK Rijeka spent most of the match with ten men. A check upgraded his booking to a red card, leaving the visitors a man short for almost the whole game at the Stadion Aldo Drosina. They lost a second player late on, when Ante Majstorović was dismissed in the 83rd minute after a similar upgrade, so the final few minutes were played with nine.

The finishing belonged to Emil Frederiksen. He put Istra 1961 ahead in the 30th minute and again in the 45th, after Toni Fruk had levelled for Rijeka in the 39th. In the 84th minute he missed a penalty, then struck again three minutes later to complete the hat-trick. A match rating of 9 says the same thing the goals do.

Rijeka had the larger share of the ball, 53%, but for an away side that is less than usual, since they normally have 59.9% when they travel. Istra had 47% at home, which is more than their usual 44.9%. Possession only tells us who was on the ball, though, and the team with ten men was the one that held it more often, so the chances need a closer look.

A better guide to chances is expected goals, which adds up how likely each shot was to go in. Istra's total was 2.43, against a usual home figure of 1.22, so they created far better openings than they normally do. Rijeka managed 0.87 against an away average of 1.25. Rijeka actually had more shots from inside the box, nine to six, and took 14 shots overall against their usual 14.7, but the better chances belonged to the home side, and they took them.

Istra scored three goals, more than their home average of 1.6. Rijeka conceded three against an away average of 1.4, which is the clearest sign that the match ran away from the visitors. The game produced four goals in total, a little above the league's usual 3.1 per match, and the extra goals came from the side playing with fewer men.

Istra's last six home results read win, draw, loss, win, loss, win, while Rijeka's last six away games read draw, loss, win, loss, win, draw. The goalkeepers made four saves for Istra through F. Kolić and three for Rijeka through I. Vekič, a sign that the shots which did arrive were testing enough to need them.

Istra sit sixth on 16 points, and Rijeka fifth on 18.

Player of the matchE. Frederiksen3 goals9.0

F. Kolić4 saves7.9

T. Fruk1 goal7.9

H. Jaganjac1 assist7.1