Keçiörengücü won on a thin night for chances

Demirel's goal settled a match in which both sides created less than usual, and the side with less of the ball took the points.

Omer Faruk Demirel scored the only goal of the afternoon in the 38th minute, and Keçiörengücü held on to beat Manisa F.K. at the Aktepe Stadium. The result is the easy part to report. The more useful question is how the chances were shared, and on that count this was a quiet game for both sides.

Ball share is the first thing most people look at, and here it tells us the least. Keçiörengücü had the ball for 45% of the match, which is close to what they usually keep at home. Manisa had 55%, a little above their usual share away from home. Possession, meaning how much time a side spends in control of the ball, did not decide this one.

What decided it was the quality of the chances, and both sides were short of them. Expected goals, or xG, is a way of scoring a chance by how likely it was to go in, based on where and how the shot was struck. Keçiörengücü finished with a figure well below the 1.2 they usually post at home, and Manisa's was far below the 1.91 they average on the road. Both sides took fewer shots than the league usually sees, which is why the match felt so flat.

Demirel's goal came from a side that put far fewer efforts on target than it might have liked, and his own afternoon was the most productive in the match. He had three shots, two of them on target, and earned an 8 from the match ratings for his work. Develi was credited with the assist, and the pair did enough with a single moment to make the difference.

Manisa had the better of the arithmetic in some areas, but the chances told a different story. They had six shots from inside the box, which is a good sign, yet seven of their efforts missed the target entirely. They did have a goal at the 55th minute, scored by Cheikne Sylla, but the video assistant referee reviewed it and ruled it out, which is a painful way to lose a moment.

There was no sending off in the match, so both sides finished with eleven men. Keçiörengücü picked up four yellow cards and Manisa three, with most of the bookings arriving in the second half. Neither side's discipline changed the match in any way that the scoreboard shows, so the result rests on who turned their few chances into something.

Keçiörengücü are sixth in the table on 20 points from 13 matches, while Manisa sit 16th on 13 points from the same number of games. Manisa remain in that lower position, and Keçiörengücü move on with a home win that was built on very little.

Player of the matchÖ. Demirel1 goal8.0

E. Develi1 assist7.5

Herculano Nabian2 duels won7.0

M. Keskin1 shot on target6.9