Minnesota won 3-1 from fewer chances than they usually create

Minnesota United FC beat San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 at Allianz Field with fewer good chances than their home norm, Nectarios Triantis scoring the winner late on.

Nectarios Triantis struck in the 90th minute to settle a game that Minnesota United FC had been trailing since just before half-time. The winner came from a home side whose attacking numbers were below their usual level, which makes the result more interesting than a late goal alone.

To see why, we need expected goals, or xG, a rough measure of how good a chance was, based on how often similar chances go in. Minnesota's total in this match was 0.97, against 1.83 in their home games this season. The league average for a side in a single match is 1.44, so they were under that as well.

Yet they scored three. Tomás Chancalay equalised in the 57th minute, Angus Gunn put the ball into his own net in the 82nd, and Triantis, who was rated 7.9 for his display, added the decisive goal at the end. Joaquín Pereyra and Morris Duggan were both involved in the build-up, with Pereyra credited with an assist for Chancalay's goal.

San Jose's chances were a little better than usual, but they did not turn them into goals. Their xG was 1.2, against 1.09 in their away games this season, yet they had only eight shots, well short of the 12.1 they usually take on the road. Preston Judd's goal was their only one, and they conceded three, when their away norm is 1.3.

Possession was close to normal for both sides. Minnesota had 51% of the ball, a little above their home average of 46%, but they took 13 shots, slightly fewer than the 14.6 they usually manage. San Jose had 49%, which is in line with their 47.9% away average. Minnesota's defence was also tighter than usual, conceding one goal against a normal 2.3.

Their recent form tells a similar story. Minnesota's last six home matches brought three wins and three draws with no defeats, while San Jose's last six away games produced one win, four draws and one defeat. Neither side was in an unusual run before kick-off, so this result stands on its own terms.

Minnesota sit 12th after this match, moving from 41 points to 44 from 34 games. San Jose remain third with 52 points from 34 matches.

Player of the matchN. Triantis1 goal7.9

J. Pereyra1 assist7.7

T. Chancalay1 goal7.5

P. Judd1 goal7.3