Esenler's chances, not the ball, decided Muğlaspor's heavy defeat

Esenler Erokspor won 5-0 at Muğlaspor, with an early penalty and a second-half red card shaping the match, and the quality of their chances explaining the margin.

Muğlaspor were a goal down inside the opening half hour, and by the time Luis Mago was sent off at 59 minutes the match had already moved away from them. The first goal came from a penalty, confirmed after a VAR check, which Guélor Kanga converted at 26 minutes. Mago's red card followed a card upgrade confirmed on review at 58, so the dismissal came after a second look rather than in the heat of the moment. Esenler Erokspor took full advantage from there, and the real story is what they did with the chances they made.

Esenler Erokspor had 57% of the ball, almost exactly their usual 56.7% on the road, so their share was ordinary. What stood out was the quality of what they created. Expected goals, a rough measure of how much each shot is worth based on its position and situation, came to 2.73 for the visitors. That is well above their own away average of 1.78, and above the league norm of 1.33 for a side in a single match.

Muğlaspor had 43% of the ball, below their usual 49.2% at home, and that is the first unusual figure on their side. Their 11 shots were close to their average of 11.2, so they were not short of attempts. Their expected goals were a different matter, falling well short of their home norm, which means the attempts they took were worth much less than usual.

Kanga was the main beneficiary, scoring twice and finishing with a rating of 8.2, the highest among the players listed for either side. Luccas Claro added a third at 60 minutes, a minute after Mago's dismissal, and Esenler's usual away tally is 1.2 goals per match. Scoring five was far outside that range, and it is the gap between the chances and the goals that tells the clearest story here.

Muğlaspor conceded five at home, against an average of two, and they had to play the last half hour with ten men. Burak Coban made it 0-4 at 86 minutes, with Recep Niyaz providing the assist, and Mame Mor Faye scored at 90 minutes to complete the scoring. Those late goals were the final blow to a side that was already a man short and playing catch-up.

Before this match, Esenler Erokspor's recent away results included a 4-2 win, and four was the most they had scored in any away game in that run. Five at Muğlaspor was therefore a clear step beyond anything they had managed on the road recently.

Player of the matchG. Kanga2 goals8.2

M. Faye1 goal8.1

Luccas Claro1 goal8.0

B. Çoban1 goal · 1 assist7.7