Osijek's finishing beat Lokomotiva's better chances in Zagreb

Osijek won 3-1 at Lokomotiva Zagreb with less of the ball and fewer shots, but scored more goals than they usually do.

Osijek were ahead inside seven minutes, when Luka Tunjic finished from a pass by Niko Farkas, and by the 36th minute Farkas had made it two himself. Lokomotiva Zagreb pulled one back in the 60th minute, but the final score understates how much of the match the home side had. On the numbers, Lokomotiva were the team that made the better chances, and Osijek were the team that put them away.

Lokomotiva had 57% of the ball, well above the 45% they usually keep at home, and they took 15 shots against the 10 they average in their own ground. Their chances were worth 1.83 goals in total, using expected goals, a measure that gives each shot a value between zero and one based on how often similar shots go in. Their usual figure is 0.98. Eleven of those 15 shots came from inside the box, close enough to goal to matter, and still the scoreboard did not follow.

Osijek were the reverse in style. They had 43% of the ball, against the 55.5% they usually keep on the road, and took 11 shots where they normally manage 16.4. Their chances added up to 1.46 goals, a little above their average of 1.35, and from them they scored three times, well beyond the 1.8 they average away. Balelo was among the scorers, but the broader point is that their finishing, not their volume, decided the match.

Mirko Marić scored Lokomotiva's goal, and it was the one moment that gave the home side a route back into the game. He had three shots, two of them on target, and a rating of 8.1 that was the highest recorded for either side. For a player who spent the match at the heart of the home attack, it was a useful afternoon that ended without the result to show for it.

Osijek had defensive work of their own to do. The home side's chances were worth far more than the 1.15 that the visitors usually concede when they play away, and the visiting goalkeeper, M. Malenica, made more saves than his home counterpart. The game was not a tidy one either: Osijek committed 22 fouls, close to twice the home side's count, and were booked four times to Lokomotiva's one. Nobody was sent off.

The wider picture is one of two clubs heading in different directions. Lokomotiva Zagreb sit ninth in the table with 11 points from their 11 matches, and they have lost six of their home games. Osijek are fourth with 17 points, and five of their away matches have ended in victories.

Lokomotiva created more and left with less, which is a pattern that has now cost them at home more than once this season. Osijek, meanwhile, took the goals that were on offer and left Zagreb with all three points.

Player of the matchM. Marić1 goal8.1

Niko Farkaš1 goal · 1 assist7.5

Balelo1 goal7.5

Luka Tunjic1 goal7.4