Lokomotiva held the ball, then lost to a 79th-minute penalty

Rudes beat NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 at home, with the only goal from the penalty spot after the hosts had most of the ball.

Most of the ball belonged to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, but the only goal of the evening came from the penalty spot, and it went to Rudes. Saad El Haddad converted in the 79th minute, and Rudes left with the three points. The hosts had the better share of play and still walked off without anything.

El Haddad had come on for Rudes at the interval, and a minute after scoring he was booked. Rudes finished with four yellow cards, with Ivan Đorić and Slavko Bralić both cautioned in the second half, while the hosts received none. Those bookings tell us how much the visitors were having to defend once they were in front.

Possession is the share of the ball each side keeps, and Lokomotiva's 66% was well above the 46.3% they have averaged at home this season. Their 10 shots were close to their usual 10.5, so they were not short of attempts. Čabraja managed two of those shots, one of them on target. The difference was quality. Expected goals, or xG, gives each shot a value for how likely it is to go in, and Lokomotiva finished on 0.79, down from a usual 1.07, with no goal to show for it where they normally average 1.3.

Rudes had 34% of the ball, a little under their away average of 37.8%, and took seven shots against a usual 9.3. Their chances were of better quality, though, with an xG that rose above their usual figure, and five of their shots came from inside the box, one more than Lokomotiva managed. Saad El Haddad, who came on at the break, was the one who turned that into a goal.

Rudes kept a clean sheet away from home, which is unusual for a side that has conceded an average of 2.3 goals per away match this season. Lokomotiva conceded once, below their usual 1.7 at home. Their home defence usually gives up 1.52 expected goals a match, and the chances Rudes had were below that level, so the visitors did not create much more than the hosts normally allow.

Across the league, teams average 3.1 goals a match and 12.4 shots each. Both sides finished below that shot figure, Lokomotiva with 10 and Rudes with seven, and one goal was far short of the league's usual total. It was a game where one side kept the ball and few chances turned into goals, which is a different story from a match full of attacks.

Rudes had won two of their last six games, while Lokomotiva had won one. Going into the match, Rudes sat eighth in the table with 13 points from 12 games, and Lokomotiva were ninth with 11.

Player of the matchS. El Haddad1 goal7.8

K. Čabrajić1 chance created7.2

Luka Popovic2 duels won7.0

I. Đorić1 chance created6.9