Punčec's red card and Beljo's penalty handed Dinamo Zagreb the win

Dinamo Zagreb beat NK Varazdin 1-3 after the home side lost a player to a red card, and the chances figures show why it mattered.

Varazdin were level at one goal each until the 77th minute, when Roberto Punčec was shown a red card. From then on the home side played with ten men, and Dinamo Zagreb made the most of it. Dion Drena Beljo had won a penalty through VAR, the video review, five minutes earlier, and he converted it himself. Miha Zajc added a third late on, and the match finished 1-3 to the visitors.

Varazdin were not on the ball much before the sending off, and that is roughly what they usually do at home. They had 42% possession, against their usual 45.7%, and took seven shots against a usual 11.8, with only two on target. Their expected goals figure, a rough measure of how good the chances were rather than how many, came to 0.86, below their normal 1.23. The home side was not creating much before anyone was sent off.

Dinamo Zagreb had 58% of the ball, which is slightly under their away average of 62.2%, so possession was not the story for the visitors. Their shooting was. They took 25 shots, well above their usual 17.2, and 13 of them came from inside the box. Their expected goals of 2.15 was close to their normal away figure, which suggests the extra shots were of fairly ordinary quality.

The number that stands out most belongs to the home defence. Varazdin usually concede chances worth around 0.79 expected goals in their own ground, and Dinamo's total in this match was far above that. They also conceded three goals, where their usual home figure is 0.9 a game. The shape of the match was set by how much Dinamo got into dangerous positions, and Varazdin were unable to stop it.

Beljo was the most influential figure for the visitors. He scored the penalty, set up Luka Stojkovic's opener in the 30th minute, and had four shots, three of them on target, along with three key passes. His rating of 7.7 reflects that. Varazdin's goal came earlier, from Luka Mamić in the 27th minute, and Ivan Canjuga supplied the assist, earning a rating of 7.1.

Form points in the same direction. Dinamo Zagreb have won four of their last six games, while Varazdin have won only one of theirs in that stretch, with three draws and two defeats. The win leaves the visitors with the stronger run into the table.

In the standings, Dinamo Zagreb sit second with 22 points from 11 games, while Varazdin are fifth on 19 points from 12.

Player of the matchL. Stojković1 goal7.8

D. Beljo1 goal · 1 assist7.7

L. Mamić1 goal7.6

M. Zajc1 goal7.1