Nottingham Forest beat City with a fifth of the ball

Two early goals from Liam Delap and Jair Cunha gave Nottingham Forest a 3-1 win over Manchester City, despite City holding most of the ball.

Nottingham Forest beat Manchester City with 22% of the ball, which is well short of their usual 47.2% at home. Possession simply means the share of time a side spends with the ball, and most teams who win at home have it more often than not. Forest did not, and still ran out 3-1 winners at the City Ground.

The first goal came from Jair Cunha in the sixth minute, and Liam Delap doubled the lead in the 18th, finishing a move started by Xaver Schlager. Those two early strikes meant City were chasing the game from very early on. Forest had scored an average of 0.7 goals per home match this season, so three goals in one afternoon was far beyond their normal return.

Forest's chances were not better than usual, though. They took 11 shots, seven of them from inside the box, against an average of 16.1 shots at home. Expected goals, a figure that adds up how good each chance was, came to 1.02 for Forest, below their usual 1.44. In other words, they took fewer and weaker chances than normal and still scored three times.

Delap was the figure who made the difference. He scored twice, the second in the 73rd minute, set up by Morgan Gibbs-White, and he was rated 8.7, the highest mark in the match. Gibbs-White, who was rated 7.3, also created chances from midfield throughout, but it was the finishing that decided the scoreline.

City had the ball and the territory, completing 665 of their 752 passes, but the chances were not as good as they usually are. Their expected goals of 1.55 sat below their away average of 2.03, and they scored once when they usually score 2.2 per away game. Rayan Cherki pulled one back in the 52nd minute, but City conceded three, well above their usual 1.1 away.

Forest conceded one goal, which is below their average of 1.3 at home, so their defence held up better than their record suggests. Across the four goals in this match, the total was well above the 2.6 goals per game the league averages. The result leaves Forest 19th in the table with six points from nine home games, while City sit second with 21 points.

Form tells a similar story. Forest have won one of their last six matches, and City have won three of their last six, with Manchester City winning seven of their nine league games this season.

Player of the matchL. Delap2 goals8.7

M. Gibbs-White1 assist7.3

R. Cherki1 goal7.2

Matheus Nunes2 chances created7.1