Stoke came back at Fratton Park on fewer shots, but sharper ones

Portsmouth led early and had more of the ball, but Stoke City came back to win with the clearer chances.

Tyrese Shade gave Portsmouth the lead inside six minutes at Fratton Park, and for a long stretch that goal looked like it might be enough. It was the only goal the home side had until the second half. Jack McGlynn levelled at 59 minutes, with Luca Bombino providing the pass, and Ben Wilmot put Stoke City ahead at 77. Portsmouth had more of the ball than Stoke, but it was the visitors who finished the stronger.

Portsmouth had 55% of the ball, above the 49.3% they average at home this season, so possession was not the problem. The problem was what it produced. Their eight shots came in below their usual 12.3, and their chances added up to 0.7 expected goals, or xG, a rough measure of how likely each shot was to go in. That is well short of the 0.99 they usually create at Fratton Park.

Stoke had 45% of the ball and took only four shots, well under the 12.5 they usually manage away from home. Three of those four were on target, though, and their chances came to 0.88 xG, close to the 0.92 they normally create on the road. Fewer shots, but better ones, and that was enough to turn the game around.

Stoke's defence had less to deal with than usual. Portsmouth's chances were thin, and the visitors normally concede 1.37 xG when they play away. Portsmouth, for their part, let in two goals, above the 0.9 they usually concede at home, and the chances they gave up were not the cause. The goals came from the moments that mattered most.

Shade was the clearest Portsmouth performer, with two shots and a goal, and he was rated 7.3 for the match. McGlynn scored from a single shot, while Wilmot needed two to find the net. V. Johansson made two saves for Stoke, and his work mattered in a match where clear openings were scarce on both sides.

Discipline did not decide it. Both sides finished with three yellow cards and neither lost a player, so the turnaround came with eleven on each side. Nothing about the game changed on the booking front.

Stoke are fourth in the table on 26 points from 14 games, with eight wins on the road. Portsmouth are tenth on 22, and they have now gone six matches unbeaten, with four of those six won.

Player of the matchT. Shade1 goal7.3

J. McGlynn1 goal7.3

B. Wilmot1 goal7.2

V. Johansson2 saves7.0