Preston won on 22% possession, with Thompson's goal the only one
Preston1 – 0Southampton 
Preston beat Southampton 1-0 at Deepdale while having far less of the ball, and the chances behind the result tell an unusual story.
Preston had 22% of the ball at Deepdale and still beat Southampton 1-0. On paper that looks like a strange result, but less so once you see what each side usually does. Preston normally keep around 39.7% of the ball at home, so this was well below their own level. Southampton average 53.3% on their travels and ended up with 78%, yet the only goal came from the side with far less of it.
Possession tells only part of the story. Southampton took 22 shots, well above their usual 13.4 away and the league's typical 13.2 per side, and seven of them were on target. Expected goals, a measure of how good a chance was (a tap-in is worth far more than a long-range effort), came out at 1.58 for the visitors, a little above their usual 1.48. So they created plenty of chances of roughly their normal quality, and the Preston keeper made seven saves to keep them out.
Ball possession
Preston's own chances were better than usual. They took 15 shots at home, where they normally manage 10.3, and their expected goals reached 1.12 against a usual 0.71. The decisive moment came in the 33rd minute, when Jordan Thompson scored. He had three efforts in the match and one of them was on target, which is a poor return by volume but the one that counted.
At the back, Preston conceded once, against an average of 2.1 goals a game at home this season. The chances Southampton created were close to what Preston usually allow, which had been 1.65 in their home games. Southampton, who usually score 2.3 goals on their travels, failed to score at all, so the gap between their chances and their finishing was the biggest talking point. Preston picked up five yellow cards to Southampton's none, though nobody was sent off.
Preston had lost five of their last six matches before this one, and their home record this season reads one win from fourteen. Southampton's away record is far healthier, with eight wins, four draws and two defeats. Their last six matches before this game had brought four wins, which made the trip to Deepdale look like a chance to pick up points. It did not work out that way.
Fares Azaz and James Ward-Prowse did most of the creating for Southampton. Azaz had five shots and five key passes, more than anyone else on either side, while Ward-Prowse also made three key passes. Thompson's goal was the only thing that separated the sides, and for Preston it arrived from a side that had been pushed back for most of the afternoon.
For Southampton, the result leaves an odd picture: 78% of the ball, 22 shots and a respectable 1.58 in expected goals, but no goal to show for any of it. Before this match they had won four of their last six away games, and that is the record they take into their next trip.
L. Nicholls8 saves
J. Thompson1 goal
F. Azaz5 chances created
J. Ward-Prowse3 chances created