City took far fewer shots than usual and still won at Leipzig

Manchester City beat RB Leipzig 3-2 with Erling Haaland's late winner, despite taking a sharp drop in the shots they usually have away from home.

Erling Haaland's goal in the 78th minute settled it, but the figure that stands out is how few shots Manchester City took. They had 11 at the Leipzig ground, where they usually have 21 when they play away, and still finished with three goals. Haaland himself had three shots on target, and one of them was the winner.

Leipzig were close to the other extreme. Their 13 shots were near the 14.7 they usually manage at home, so the volume was ordinary. The quality was not. Expected goals, a rough measure of how likely a team's chances are to go in, came to 0.84 for Leipzig, against 1.82 at home, while the average side in the league reaches 1.71.

Leipzig still scored twice, which is why the chances figure matters less than it first appears. Ridle Baku levelled on 49 minutes after Brajan Gruda's assist, and Antonio Nusa made it 2-2 on 61 minutes from Christopher Nkunku's pass. Two goals is double the one they usually score at home, and their finishing ran well ahead of what their chances promised.

The ball told a different story. Leipzig had 35% of it, down from the 43.3% they usually hold at home, while City had 65%, a touch above their 60.7% average away. Possession did not turn into chances for City either: their expected goals came to 2.24, below the 2.72 they usually create on their travels.

City had led first, through an own goal from Castello Junior Lukeba on 37 minutes, and Enzo Fernández restored that lead on 58 after Iliman Ndiaye's pass. Haaland's winner came 20 minutes later, set up by Elliot Anderson, and it was the goal that turned a tight contest into a City win.

G. Donnarumma made four saves for City, and his work at the other end mattered as much as the goals did. Haaland was rated 8 for his display, the same mark as Fernández, which tells you how much the match turned on City's two finishers rather than on the chances they created as a team.

City move up to 12th in the table on six points from three games. Leipzig are 28th, on three points from theirs.

Player of the matchA. Nusa1 goal8.2

E. Haaland1 goal8.0

E. Fernández1 goal8.0

I. Ndiaye1 assist7.7