Boluspor's two goals outran their chances at Sivasspor

Boluspor led 2-0 inside eleven minutes and held on for a 2-1 win at Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu, despite Sivasspor having the ball and the better chances.

Boluspor were two goals up inside eleven minutes at Yeni 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Muhammed Çaylı opening the scoring in the third minute and Zeki Dursun doubling it at 11. They then held on for a 2-1 win, even though Sivasspor had far more of the ball and, by most measures, the better chances. Expected goals, a rough measure of how much each chance was worth based on where and how it was taken, is the number that tells the story.

Sivasspor had 61% of the ball, well above the 44.2% they usually keep in home games. Their chances added up to 1.37 expected goals, against the 1.04 they average at home, so the home side was creating more than its own norm. Boluspor's chances were worth 0.55, only slightly above the 0.44 they average away, and yet they scored twice, where their usual return is 0.4 goals a match.

Sivasspor pulled one back through Cihat Celik at 14 minutes, and the match settled into a long spell in which the home side pressed without finding the goal it needed. A Boluspor effort was ruled out after a VAR check at 32 minutes, which would have added to the visitors' tally had it stood. Sivasspor had 14 shots in total, against their usual 10.6, and six of them came from inside the penalty area.

Boluspor managed only five shots, below the 7.7 they usually take away from home, and only one of them came from inside the box. Their goalkeeper was called on twice, the home goalkeeper once. Sivasspor also won four corners to Boluspor's one, yet the visitors' three shots on target matched the home side's three, which is why the chance count reads so differently from the scoreboard.

Zeki Dursun was the man of the afternoon for Boluspor, scoring the second goal, taking four shots and putting two of them on target, which earned him an 8.2 rating. Muhammed Çaylı's early strike was his only goal, and he was replaced at 80 minutes. For Sivasspor, Charisis won ten aerial and ground duels, the most of anyone on the pitch, but the home side conceded two goals against an average of 1.5 at home.

Boluspor conceded one goal, below the two they usually concede away, and their opponents' expected-goal figure of 1.57 at home is more than the 0.55 Boluspor's own chances added up to. Sivasspor sit 17th in the table with 13 points from 12 games, and Boluspor are 20th with one point from eleven away matches.

Player of the matchZ. Dursun1 goal8.2

M. Çaylı1 goal8.1

C. Çelik1 goal7.7

F. Metin6 duels won6.8