Sporting's chances were better than usual, and Suárez settled it

Sporting CP beat Moreirense 1-0 at José Alvalade with a 61st-minute Luis Suárez goal, in a match where the home side's chances were stronger than usual but their goals were not.

Luis Suárez's goal in the 61st minute was the only one Sporting CP needed at José Alvalade, and Issa Doumbia had the assist. Sporting had 72% of the ball, which tells you how long they kept it, though not yet how well they used it.

Possession alone can mislead, so the more useful figure is expected goals, a rough measure of how good each chance was based on where and how it was taken. Sporting's total was 2.08, against the 1.44 they usually reach at home. Their chances were better than they normally create, not simply more of them.

Sixteen of their 19 shots came from inside the box, and five were on target. Yet Sporting usually score 2.3 goals at home and scored one here. The gap between the quality of what they made and what they converted is the real story of this match.

Moreirense had 28% of the ball, well under the 38.4% they usually keep away from home. Their nine shots were close to their usual 8.6, and their expected goals of 0.55 sat under the 0.64 they normally manage. Their defence held better than usual too, conceding one against an away average of 1.7.

Suárez had three shots and hit the target once, and that one went in. Doumbia's assist was his second moment of the game, and Iván Fresneda won eight duels across the full 90 minutes. Kaique made two saves for Sporting, while André Ferreira made three for Moreirense, a sign that the visitors were called upon at the other end too.

For context, the league averages 2.6 goals per match and 11.9 shots per side. This game produced 28 shots between the two teams, well above what a typical pair of sides creates, yet only one goal went in. That is the kind of match where the scoreboard flatters neither side and tells you little about the chances.

Sporting are third in the table with 21 points from ten matches. Moreirense are ninth with 14 points from ten, and they remain there after a defeat that kept them to a single shot less than their usual tally.

Player of the matchL. Suárez1 goal8.1

I. Doumbia1 assist7.7

Iván Fresneda1 shot on target7.5

R. Zalazar4 duels won7.2