Toulouse won with less ball and fewer shots than usual

Toulouse beat Strasbourg 3-1 at home, scoring three from chances worth less than they usually create.

Toulouse won at home with less of the ball and fewer shots than they usually have. Over their home matches this season they average 52.1% possession and 12.9 shots a game, but here they had 47% of the ball and took 10 shots. Possession is simply the share of time a side spends in control of the ball, and most sides would rather have more of it than less. Toulouse still scored three, and the way they did it is the story.

Expected goals, usually shortened to xG, is a way of scoring the quality of each chance. A tap-in close to goal counts for far more than a long-range effort, and the total estimates how many goals those chances should have produced. Toulouse's chances added up to 1.08, well below their usual 1.54 at home, so they created less than normal and still scored three. Strasbourg fared worse on this measure, with a figure roughly half of their away average, which means the gap between chances and goals sits almost entirely with the home side.

The first goal came just before half-time, when Santiago Hidalgo finished from Sion Oppong's assist, and it stood after a VAR check, the video review that confirms or overturns decisions. Mark McKenzie made it 2-0 on 56 minutes, set up by Cristian Casseres. Hidalgo, who had three shots and two of them on target, was taken off on 67 minutes with a rating of 8.2. Giovanni Reyna pulled one back for Strasbourg in the same minute, before Thomas Jorgensen restored the two-goal lead on 76 minutes from Rasmus Nicolaisen's assist. Four goals in one match is more than the league average of three per game.

Strasbourg had more of the ball than they usually do, 53% against an away average of 48%, and they completed most of their passes. Possession did not turn into the chances it might have. They took nine shots against a usual 12.7 away from home, and only five of them came from inside the penalty area, while Toulouse put ten there. Four of Strasbourg's efforts came from outside the box, and Toulouse had none from that range.

Both defences allowed fewer chances than they usually do, so the scoreline is hard to explain by chances alone. Strasbourg conceded three goals, above their away average of 2.1, while Toulouse conceded one against a home norm of 1.4. Toulouse's advantage lay as much in taking their openings as in creating them, and Strasbourg's problem was that the few openings they allowed were enough.

Form gives a little more context. Toulouse have lost only once in their last six matches, a run that includes three draws and two wins. Strasbourg came into this one on four defeats in their last six. Both clubs have ten points from nine matches, with Toulouse 12th and Strasbourg 13th.

Player of the matchS. Hidalgo1 goal8.2

C. Cásseres1 assist7.7

M. McKenzie1 goal7.6

T. Jørgensen1 goal7.5