Vanspor FK made the chances, Sivasspor had the ball

Vanspor FK beat Sivasspor 3-1 at Van Ataturk Stadi by turning a burst of shooting into goals, while Sivasspor kept more of the ball without finding a clear chance.

Vanspor FK took 18 shots at Van Ataturk Stadi, and that is the number to hold onto. Their usual home figure is 9.1 per match, so they were shooting at roughly twice their normal rate. The shots were not all speculative, which matters as much as the total.

Kadir Seven gave the home side the lead in the 14th minute, set up by Hikmet Çiftçi, and Mehmet Manis doubled it in the 59th. Expected goals, a rough guide to how often chances of a given quality go in, put Vanspor FK's total for the match at 2.92. They average 1.13 at home, so the goals were backed by the openings they created rather than by luck in front of goal.

Sivasspor had more of the ball, 56% against an average of 45.6% on the road, yet very little came of it. Their five shots sit well below the 10.9 they usually take away from home, and their expected goals of 0.36 is far under their normal 1.11. They attempted 382 passes to Vanspor FK's 308, so the possession was real, but it did not lead to many openings.

Alvaro de Oliveira made it three in the 81st minute, and Rey Manaj pulled one back in the 85th, set up by Ebrima Ceesay. Manaj's goal came from three shots, and his 7.3 rating was the best on the Sivasspor side, which says more about his involvement than the four minutes that remained. The consolation was real, but it came too late to change the shape of the match.

Sivasspor's keeper made three saves, while the home keeper had to make only one, which tells us where the danger came from. Twelve of Vanspor FK's shots were taken inside the box and only six from further out, so most of their threat came from close range. Sivasspor's 0.36 expected goals also sits below the 0.73 that Vanspor FK usually concede at home.

On the road, Sivasspor usually concede 1.5 goals and face 1.37 expected goals, so three goals and 2.92 expected goals for Vanspor FK were both well above what they normally allow. The gap between the chances and the ball is the clearest part of the afternoon, and it is the part that explains the result.

Sivasspor's away record now stands at two wins, seven draws and four defeats from 13 matches. Vanspor FK's home record is four wins, three draws and six defeats from the same number of games.

Player of the matchH. Çiftçi1 assist7.7

Álvaro de Oliveira1 goal7.6

M. Maniş1 goal7.6

R. Manaj1 goal7.3