Venezia beat Udinese with less of the ball and better chances

Venezia won at home while having less of the ball than usual, and their chances explain how.

Venezia had less of the ball than they usually do, yet they made the better chances. Over their recent home matches they have averaged 50.1% possession, but against Udinese at the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo that figure fell to 46%. What tipped it was the quality of their shooting: their expected goals (xG, a score for each shot based on where and how it was taken) reached 1.74, well above the 1.28 they usually manage at home.

The breakthrough came early in the second half. Toma Bašić scored in the 53rd minute, finishing a move started by Antoine Hainaut, and Kike Pérez found the net in the 65th minute with Pasquale Mazzocchi providing the pass. Venezia scored twice, which is a lot for a side that usually scores 0.6 goals a game at home.

Udinese had the bigger share of the ball, 54% against their usual 50.2% on the road, but it did not bring them more danger. They took 13 shots, close to their away average of 13.9, and their xG was 1.01 against a usual 1.05. Possession, in other words, was not where the match was decided.

Venezia's goalkeeper did plenty of work to keep the score as close as it was. F. Stanković made five saves, while Udinese's goalkeeping total for the afternoon was two. Venezia's chances still came in below the 2.22 xG Udinese usually concede on the road, so their defence was not overrun.

Set against the rest of Serie A, the picture is fairly ordinary. The average side in the division takes 14.3 shots and creates 1.48 xG a match, and Venezia's 15 shots sit just above that line. Ten of those shots came from inside the box, nine for Udinese, and the match produced three goals, below the league's average of 3.4 per game.

Both clubs are near the bottom of the table. Venezia are 20th and Udinese 19th after ten matches each, which gives this result weight for both sides even though neither was dramatic on the numbers. The win was built on a sharper finish rather than on a large share of possession.

Udinese conceded two goals, which is close to their road average of 2.3 a match this season, so the defeat followed the pattern they have shown away from home.

Player of the matchKike Pérez1 goal8.2

F. Stanković5 saves7.7

A. Hainaut1 assist7.5

T. Bašić1 goal7.5