Sabah FA lost a man in the 77th minute and Viking scored twice more

Viking beat Sabah FA 4-1 in the Champions League, but the turning point was a red card that came when Viking were already ahead.

Aden McCarthy was sent off for Sabah FA in the 77th minute, after a VAR review upgraded his yellow card to a red. Viking led 2-1 at that point, and they spent the last thirteen minutes of the match against ten men. They used the advantage to score twice more, through Henrik Falchener and then Erik Botheim, and the final score of 4-1 says more about that stretch than about the first half.

Viking's chances were the first thing that stood out. Expected goals is a way of scoring the quality of chances, adding up how often each shot would be expected to go in, and Viking's total of 2.48 was far above what they usually produce at home, where their average is 0.6. They also took 21 shots, against a home average of 8.6, and the number of shots inside the box alone was higher than most home sides manage in a match. Viking did not simply have more of the ball, though they did have it: 51% possession, against a home average of 39%.

Sabah FA's numbers were closer to their normal levels. They had 49% of the ball, which is only a little above their usual 46%, and they took 16 shots, roughly what they average away from home. Their chances, at 1.51 expected goals, were also a little better than their away norm of 1.37, so they were not short of openings. Patrick Mbina gave them the lead in the 11th minute, the only time they scored, and the rest of the match turned on how often Viking converted their chances.

Viking converted often. Botheim scored twice, Zlatko Tripić scored after missing a penalty in the same 69th minute, and Falchener scored the third. Tripić's contribution went beyond the goal: he had the one assist in the game that began the move for Falchener, and his name is attached to three of the four Viking goals in some way. Sabah's goalkeeper, S. Pokatilov, made four saves, the most of either keeper, and his performance is the reason the final margin was not larger.

Viking's defence, measured against their own record, was better than usual. They conceded once, against a home average of 2.4, which means they were more solid than they normally are at home. Sabah conceded four, double their away average of 1.7, and the sending off in the 77th minute is the most obvious reason, though it was not the only one. Sabah's own expected goals of 1.51 were about what they usually make away from home, so the defeat was not a case of Sabah creating nothing.

The match produced five goals, above the league average of 3.9 per match, and the 21 shots Viking took were well above the league average of 14.4 per team. Viking sit 33rd in the table with one point from three matches, while Sabah FA are 25th with three points from three. Viking's four goals were the most they have scored in any of their last five home matches, and Sabah's four conceded was the most they have let in across their last six away matches.

Player of the matchZ. Tripić1 goal · 1 assist9.0

E. Botheim2 goals8.7

P. Mbina1 goal7.8

H. Falchener1 goal7.7