Late Porto winner came after Vitória had more shots but weaker chances

Martim Fernandes scored deep into the second half to give FC Porto the win in Guimarães, after Vitória SC had levelled and their shooting had been more plentiful than their chances.

Martim Fernandes settled this in the 86th minute, nine minutes after Vitória SC had levelled through Alan de Souza Guimarães. Porto had led from the 38th minute through Borja Sainz, so the late finish turned a fragile lead into a win. It was a result that changed hands twice, and the chances behind it tell a more uneven story than the scoreline.

Vitória took 16 shots, which is almost exactly what they usually manage at home, so the volume was ordinary for them. The quality was not. Their expected goals figure, a rough measure of how good a chance was based on where and how it was struck, came to 0.72, well below the 1.31 they average at home. Half their efforts came from inside the box, so the problem was not only distance, but few of those shots were clear openings.

Porto had 53% of the ball, a little under their usual share away from home. Their chances were also below their normal level, with an expected goals figure of 1.64 against an away average of 2.3. Porto took only 12 shots, far fewer than they usually do, yet they still found the net twice. That gap between how much they created and how much they scored is where the afternoon was decided.

Alan de Souza Guimarães was the most productive home player, scoring the equaliser and earning a rating of 7.9, the best in the Vitória side. Gustavo was the other notable contributor, with four key passes and an assist for the goal. Their work gave Vitória their best spell, but it did not last long enough to force Porto into a defensive shift.

Porto's defence was tested more than usual here. They conceded one goal, against an away average of 0.4, and Diogo Costa made five saves to keep the scoreline from getting away from them. Vitória's expected goals conceded average of 0.98 at home suggests the hosts also let in more than they usually do, which fits a match where both sides were a little off their normal pattern.

Porto have now won all ten of their away matches this season, scoring 25 goals and conceding four. Vitória, who are 13th after ten games with nine points, have a home record of two wins, three draws and five defeats. Porto leave Guimarães with a fourth straight win, while Vitória remain where they were before kick-off.

Player of the matchAlan1 goal7.9

Borja Sainz1 goal7.6

Diogo Costa5 saves7.5

Pepê Aquino1 assist7.3