Fluminense scored more than their chances promised at Vitoria

Agustín Canobbio scored and set up a goal in the 3-0 win, and the visitors' finishing ran ahead of their chances.

Fluminense scored three goals at the Barradão, and the more interesting part is how they got them. Expected goals, a rough guide to how likely each shot was to go in, put the visitors' chances at 1.29 for the night. Away from home they usually create 1.09 in expected goals and score 1.8 goals a match, so they turned more of their chances into goals than the chances alone suggested.

The first goal came in the 15th minute, when J. Savarino finished a move set up by Canobbio. Canobbio then scored himself in the 42nd minute, so Fluminense went in at half-time two goals up. Vitoria's own chances were close to their normal level, with an expected goals figure of 0.77 against an average of 0.83 at home, but they put none of them away. At home they usually score 1.1 a match.

Vitoria had 43% of the ball, which is almost exactly their home average of 43.4%, so possession was not where the night turned. Their shooting was lower than usual, with 10 attempts against a normal 12.6. Fluminense had 57% of the ball, a little below their usual share, and took 12 shots, which is their regular count. The visitors simply made more of the shots that mattered.

Canobbio was the standout, scoring and setting up a goal, and his performance earned him a rating of 9.3. Hulk came on in the 69th minute and took the most shots of anyone on the pitch, four of them, with two on target. For Vitoria, Erick created three chances with his key passes, the passes that lead directly to a shot, but none of them ended in a goal.

Vitoria's goalkeeper kept the score down with four saves, but the visitors added a third goal in the 90th minute, when R. Castillo finished after a pass from Nonato. Conceding three is more than double the 1.4 Vitoria usually let in at home. The result leaves them with a heavy defeat on a night when their attack did not trouble the visitors' defence.

Vitoria are 15th in the table with 38 points from 33 matches, and they have won only once in their last six. Fluminense sit fourth on 54 points from the same number of games, and three of their last six matches have ended in victory.

Player of the matchAgustín Canobbio1 goal · 1 assist9.3

Hulk2 shots on target8.0

Jamerson1 shot on target7.3

Hércules2 chances created7.3