Kifisia won 3-1 by scoring more than their chances suggested

Volos led after four minutes, but Kifisia's finishing carried them to victory from fewer chances than usual.

Kifisia won 3-1 at the Panthessaliko Stadium after Volos NFC had led for the first four minutes, and the win rests on finishing rather than chances. Expected goals, a measure of how good a side's shots were judged to be, came to 0.9 for Kifisia, below their usual 1.11 per match. They scored three anyway, more than twice their usual 1.4.

Jan Hurtado put Volos ahead in the fourth minute, finishing from a pass by Jorge Samuel Figueiredo Fernandes. Apóstolos Christópoulos equalised in the 27th minute after a pass from Jorge Pombo, so the sides were level at half time. Ángelo Sagal then scored in the 72nd minute and again in the 90th, the second after a pass from Bernardo Martins, which settled the game late on. A VAR review at 81 minutes also changed an original decision involving Tiago Manso of Kifisia.

Kifisia had 63% of the ball, well above their usual 52.1%, while Volos had 37%, under their usual 41.2%. Possession only matters if it turns into shots, and here the extra time on the ball did not produce more of them. Kifisia took 11 shots, almost exactly their usual 11.5, so what changed was how many of those shots went in.

Volos had a shot count below their norm, with expected goals close to their usual level, so their attack was ordinary by their own standards. They scored one, slightly above their usual 0.7. The departure from normal came at the back, where they conceded three, against a usual two, and that is what set this match apart for them.

Across the league a side usually takes 12 shots and creates an expected goals figure of 1.21 in a match. Kifisia's 0.9 sat below that, so their chances were modest by the division's standards, and their goals were well above what those chances suggested. Four goals in the match was also above the usual 2.7 per game in the league, so the afternoon was lively without being unusual in shape.

Volos come into the game on a poor run, having lost their last three matches. Kifisia have won two of their last three, which puts the match in a different light from the table alone. The contrast in form is real, even if the chances were closer than the scoreline makes them look.

The win leaves Kifisia seventh in the table and Volos 14th, still without a league win this season.

Player of the matchÁ. Sagal2 goals8.2

A. Christópoulos1 goal8.0

Jan Hurtado1 goal7.8

K. Roukounakis1 chance created7.2