Watford won 1-0 on fewer chances than their usual

Stephy Mavididi's goal just after the restart settled a Championship game at Vicarage Road, with Watford's chances below their usual level and Lincoln's chances worse still.

Stephy Mavididi scored the only goal of the game in the 46th minute, with Myron Boadu providing the assist, and it came straight after the restart. Watford held on to win 1-0 at Vicarage Road. The scoreline makes the night look straightforward, but the chances behind it were thinner than the winners usually create.

Watford had the ball for 60% of the match, well above their usual 46.2% at home. Lincoln held 40%, close to their normal 38.8% on the road, so the visitors had possession about as much as they usually do. Possession was not what separated the sides. What mattered was what each side did with it, and how close those actions came to the goal.

Watford took 17 shots, against a home average of 11.3, so they were far more active than usual. Expected goals, a measure of chance quality that gives each shot a score for its chance of going in, put those efforts on 0.68. That is below their usual 0.97 at home, and below the 1.4 that an average side in this league produces in a match. More shots, then, but lower-quality ones: only two were on target and six came from inside the box.

Lincoln's 12 shots were almost exactly their usual 11.4 away, but their expected goals came in at 0.69 against a road norm of 1.24. They had eight efforts inside the box, more than Watford managed, yet only one of their shots was on target. The danger was there, but very little of it reached the goal. Lincoln's road average is 1.2 goals a match, and they scored none.

The defensive side of the story runs the other way. Watford usually concede chances worth 1.71 at home, and this time Lincoln's chances were worth well under that. They also usually concede 1.8 goals at home, and this time they conceded none. Ravaglia made one save in goal for Watford and won three ground duels, and Lincoln's Bola won eleven duels of his own, which shows how much of the afternoon was spent contesting the ball rather than shooting at it.

Watford picked up four yellow cards to Lincoln's two. Mavididi was booked on 50 minutes, four minutes after his goal, and he was replaced on 70. He still finished with the highest rating on either side, an 8, for the goal and his three shots. Lincoln's bookings came from House early in the second half and Bradley late on.

In the table, Watford sit 21st with 11 points from 13 matches, having won three of their games at home. Lincoln are 16th with 15 points, and four of their wins have come away from home.

Player of the matchS. Mavididi1 goal8.0

F. Ravaglia1 save7.4

M. Bola3 chances created7.3

H. Kyprianou1 chance created7.2