Middlesbrough had the ball, but Wrexham had the chances

Wrexham beat Middlesbrough 2-0 at the Racecourse Ground, with Middlesbrough's chances falling well short of their usual level and Wrexham's rising above theirs.

Middlesbrough had more of the ball at the Racecourse Ground, but Wrexham had the better chances and won 2-0 with it. The possession split is the least surprising part of the evening, because Middlesbrough's share of 62% sits close to what they usually keep when playing away. The surprise lies in what each side did with its time on the ball.

Expected goals is a way of measuring chances by how likely each shot was to go in, so a tap-in counts for far more than a speculative effort from distance. On that measure Middlesbrough finished on 0.85. Away from home they usually reach 2.12, so this was a clear drop in quality rather than a quiet afternoon for the visitors. Their 12 shots also fell short of their away average of 18.8, which points the same way.

Wrexham moved in the opposite direction. Their expected goals of 1.49 beat their home figure of 1.16, and they took 15 shots against a usual 11.4. They held only 38% of the ball, below the 48.3% they normally keep at home, so this was a side that created more while doing less with possession than it is used to. That combination is the more unusual part of the result.

The first goal came in the 70th minute, when G. Thomason finished from a pass by K. Moore. Middlesbrough had already made three changes at the hour, and two more followed after that goal. O. Rathbone, who had come on at 77, added the second in the 84th minute from a pass by L. O'Brien, and the scoreline was settled from there.

Wrexham also kept Middlesbrough off the scoresheet. At home they usually concede 1.6 goals a game, and this time they conceded none. Middlesbrough, for their part, tend to score 2.4 goals a game when they travel, and they left with nothing. The visitors kept the ball for longer, but the chances they made were not enough to trouble the home goal.

Wrexham sit 16th in the table, with four wins from 14 home games, so a result like this matters more to them than the figures alone suggest. Middlesbrough had won four and drawn two of their last six away games before this, and had not lost any of them. This defeat ends that unbeaten run on the road.

Player of the matchG. Thomason1 goal8.2

K. Moore1 assist7.7

L. O'Brien1 assist7.7

O. Rathbone1 goal7.4